#Opinion

#Ukraine

Doomed (to) Negotiations

2026.01.26 |

Andrey Kolesnikov*

Military intelligence officers and investment bankers are now trying to negotiate deals and trades — hardly representatives of these professions are capable of establishing a lasting peace, columnist NT Andrey Kolesnikov* believes.

The Russian delegation sent to Abu Dhabi and personally instructed by Putin on the night of the seventh conversation with Witkoff had a characteristic of professional aberration. The profession — military, more precisely, a representative of the GRU. This is not a negotiating team, this is a gathering of "Mr. No's." Military discipline does not imply deviations from the rigid position of higher officials, or rather, one official. No independence is provided at all. Moreover, the representatives of the Russian delegation — this seems to have been done deliberately — are somewhat asymmetrical to the Ukrainian and American negotiators. It could be assumed, as has happened more than once, that they are deliberately lower in status than the representatives of the opposing side and the mediator. But the Kremlin would not agree with this: the GRU is the most important state body in modern Russia, its members are the caste that performs the most delicate missions and enjoys the trust of the "supreme." Especially the head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff, Hero of Russia, "laureate" of all kinds of sanctions Igor Kostyukov. So we can talk about the mismatch of occupations and professional cultures of the delegation representatives. Which is hardly beneficial for rapprochement of positions. The background of the negotiations is convincingly bad — intensive drone and missile raids. Probably for the sake of greater efficiency in the two-day clarification of positions. The military-intelligence composition of the negotiators is a symbolic message that is easily deciphered: Donbass Ukraine either has to give up or it will be "returned" by military methods. The medium-term question — "buffer zone" — is probably more specific in details, but completely depends on where the border will be drawn according to a potential (highly potential) peace agreement. It was reported that "economic" issues were discussed. By whom — by this composition?
 

Mergers and Acquisitions

Deadlock-2025 transformed into Deadlock-2026. With the same game with Trump — Witkoff and Kushner's flights in dreams and reality. The future world government in the form of the Peace Council, intended, according to Trump, to replace the UN and the entire security system suffered by humanity, blown up in the 21st century by "strongmen" and "troublemakers" claiming "spheres of influence" and territorial division, was quite matched by the new character admitted to the Kremlin — Josh Gruenbaum. It is he, apparently, who will play a serious role in managing the Peace Council in the position of "senior advisor." In the talks in Abu Dhabi, this "young reformer" also participated. Well, and besides, his biography perfectly fits into the style of solving world problems by Trump — deals and trades in the logic of real estate specialists and investment bankers. Which is what Gruenbaum is, a professional in the field of "mergers and acquisitions." And what is world politics today, if not "mergers and acquisitions," and the most extravagant ones.

For the old world order, one Jew was important — Harvard professor Henry Kissinger (also "comrade Kissinger" and "Ghenry," as L. I. Brezhnev called him), for the new world disorder — another Jew, Josh Gruenbaum, this time with an investment banking background, just like Kirill Dmitriev. Dugin and Malofeev must be terribly worried — while Putin hugs Mahmoud Abbas and promises full support to the Palestinian people even without a fleeting mention of Israel, will our supreme commander now be led by some kind of American backstage Boris Abramovich?!

 


President of the UAE Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan with the heads of the delegations of Russia, Ukraine, and the USA, Abu Dhabi, January 23, 2026. Photo: AFP

 
The (quasi)negotiation process becomes as long as Trump's tie. With the same erroneous presumption of Putin's rationality: now we will promise investments and in exchange for this, he will stop the "special operation." The Kremlin's master convincingly proves every time that he will never retreat from two principles — no truce (while it seems that an "energy truce" is being discussed, a refusal of strikes on energy facilities on one side and oil facilities on the other) and reaching the "administrative" borders of Donbass. The latter is a kind of "Anchorage formula," which suddenly emerged from oblivion like a dancer from the "Berezka" ensemble from behind the scenes. More precisely, the "world backstage." Whether the Americans are aware of the content of the "formula" and whether it actually existed, only future generations will find out when the records of negotiations of our stunningly cynical time are declassified. Not in our lifetime.

The meaning and content of this very time are clearly spoken by the professions of the two main Russian negotiators — an investment banker and a military intelligence officer. Presidential aide Ushakov only vaguely comments on the conversations with the president, and Foreign Minister Lavrov, following Putin's verbal technology, talks for three hours about the West's treachery. Well, and all together accept credentials from foreign ambassadors, including "unfriendly" ones, on the slippery (in every sense) parquet of the Kremlin.
 

Mutual Interest

At the exit — instead of the Pipe of Peace (peace pipe) Board of Peace (Peace Council). Where, just in case, small and medium-sized countries strive to stake out places — who knows, maybe it will turn out that this will be the basis of the new world order. The security system, its institutions are collapsing or becoming ineffective, perhaps this new "umbrella" will turn out to be a modern model of collective security. For some, an "umbrella," and for others a trading platform: unfreeze our assets, and then we are ready to join the Council and, first of all, direct this money to the brotherly Palestinian people. A wonderful combination: what Trump loves so much and what Putin understands so well — a deal and a trade.

It turns out that in this picture of world disorder, Putin is interested in Trump or Trumpism (after Trump), and Trump — in Putin and Putinism. Deals, trades, rejection of rules — all these are reasons for mutual satisfaction. If one can behave outside the rules, principles, norms, then the other, in his sphere of influence, can too. It is interesting how these two bears will get along in one den if Trump switches from Greenland to the Cuban question. Putin promised the island help in protecting sovereignty. True, being confident that Trump will not dare to take drastic steps, as did not happen in the story with the Iranian protests.

What is missing in the models of the world of Trump and Putin is the human being. What concept is completely excluded from their discourse is "human rights." Big bosses think in terms of human mass, not the individual (although the American president showed common sense when he said that his task is to stop the loss of life). The mass can be moved back and forth on the world map. "Sphere of influence" is more important than the person and his rights. The chimera of "millennial history" or restored pseudo-greatness weighs more than a human life that can be laid on the altar of invented history and imaginary greatness. Territories are more important than those who live on them.

So military intelligence officers and investment bankers will "constructively" and "productively" meet each other in the oil-rich Arab monarchies — a capacious symbol of the modern world, losing institutional and moral foundations. And a person in such systems will have only two social roles — drone operator and drone victim. What a degradation of homo sapiens of the 21st century compared to Leonardo da Vinci's "Vitruvian Man."
 


* Andrey Kolesnikov is considered a "foreign agent" by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.

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