The Russian economy may shrink for two consecutive years for the first time since the mid-1990s, inflation will accelerate to a 10-year record, citizens will have to drastically cut consumption, and businesses will have to reduce investments. These parameters have been included by the Central Bank of Russia in the 'risky scenario' for economic development, which includes a drop in oil prices to $30-35 and increased Western sanctions, writes The Moscow Times*.
In this scenario, Russian GDP decreases by 2.5-3.5% next year and another 2-3% the following year. At its peak — in the fourth quarter of 2026 — the rate of decline reaches 6-7%.
The economy loses $108 billion in export revenues in 2026 and another $51 billion in 2027. As a result, their total volume drops to $255 billion — the lowest level since 2005. For comparison: last year, Russia earned $434 billion from exports, and this year, according to the Central Bank's forecast, it will receive $414 billion.
Inflation accelerates to 10.5-12.5% (the highest level since 2005), and the Central Bank is forced to raise the key rate again — to 17.5-19.5% in 2026 and 18-20% in 2027.
Household private consumption volumes in this scenario decrease by 0.5-1.5% in the first year of the crisis, and then by 6-7% in the second. Businesses drastically cut investments — by 11-13% in 2026 and another 5-7% in 2027.
'In addition to worsening trade conditions, increased sanctions pressure will lead to an expansion of the discount on Russian goods, as well as a reduction in oil exports and production. <...> Against the backdrop of a significant drop in raw material prices for oil <...> this will lead to intensive use of the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund, which creates risks of rapid depletion of the fund's resources by the end of 2026,' warns the Central Bank.
This scenario was mentioned in a conversation with NT by the well-known economist Yevsey Gurvich, who for many years headed the economic expert group of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
* Recognized in Russia as a 'foreign agent' and 'undesirable' organization.