The U.S. has received new intelligence indicating that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, despite the Trump administration's efforts to reach a diplomatic deal with Tehran, several American officials toldCNN. The increased concern is not only due to public and private messages from senior Israeli officials considering such a move, but also intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements that may indicate a pending strike. Among the military preparations are the movement of aerial munitions and the completion of air exercises.
However, these same indicators may simply be an attempt by Israel to pressure Iran to abandon key principles of its nuclear program.
It is noted that there is no absolute certainty that Israel has made a final decision, and there are disagreements within the U.S. government about the likelihood of how Israel will ultimately act.
However, "the likelihood of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has significantly increased in recent months," one source believes. "And the prospect of a U.S.-Iran agreement that does not lead to the removal of all Iranian uranium makes such a prospect even more likely."
In a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for diplomatic efforts to succeed, a source familiar with the letter's contents said. More than 60 days have passed since the letter was delivered and 38 days since the first round of negotiations began.
"Ultimately, Israel's decision-making will depend on U.S. political decisions and actions, as well as on the agreements President Trump reaches or does not reach with Iran," said former senior intelligence official Jonathan Panikoff, adding that he believes Netanyahu would not want to risk a complete break with the U.S. by striking without at least tacit U.S. consent.
Iran is in its weakest military position in decades, after Israel bombed its missile complexes and air defense systems in October, combined with an economy weakened by sanctions and Israel's destruction of its most powerful regional proxies. Israel, according to American officials, sees a window of opportunity.
Meanwhile, according to one source, Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program without American assistance, including aerial refueling and bombs needed to penetrate deeply buried facilities, as also reflected in previous American intelligence reports.
"I think they are most likely to strike to try to break up the deal if they think Trump will agree to a 'bad deal,'" another CNN interlocutor believes. "The Israelis are unashamedly signaling this to us... both publicly and privately."
Currently, U.S. negotiations with Iran are stalled over the demand that Tehran not enrich uranium—a process that can allow for weapon creation but is also necessary for civilian nuclear energy production. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, leading the American delegation, said over the weekend in an interview with ABC News that Washington "cannot allow even 1% uranium enrichment" as part of the agreement. "We have presented the Iranians with a proposal that we believe addresses some of these issues without disrespecting them," he said.
On Tuesday, Khamenei stated that he does not expect negotiations with the United States over Tehran's nuclear program to "reach a conclusion," calling the U.S. demand for Iran not to enrich uranium a "big mistake." Iran insists that it has the right to enrich uranium under the UN Non-Proliferation Treaty and states that it will not relinquish this right under any circumstances.