During President Donald Trump's first term, Ukraine was already concerned that he might recognize Russian control over Crimea, writes The New York Times. He stated that he would "consider" the issue, noting that "the people of Crimea, as I have heard, would prefer to be with Russia," although the Obama administration and America's Western allies had previously rejected the annexation.
In July 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued an official "Crimea Declaration," promising that the non-recognition policy would remain "until Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored." He also stated that "a fundamental international principle shared by democratic states: no country can change the borders of another country by force."
The current US Secretary of State in October 2022, as a senator, was one of the authors of a bill prohibiting the United States from recognizing Russian claims to any part of Ukrainian lands, warning that this would "create a dangerous precedent for imitation by other authoritarian regimes, such as the Chinese Communist Party."
Now, in an attempt to negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Trump is ready to abandon this declaration and over a decade of American policy.
Samuel Charap, an analyst and Ukraine specialist at RAND Corporation, believes that Trump has experience in recognizing long-disputed territorial claims. In 2019, he recognized the long-standing occupation of the Golan Heights in Syria by his close ally Israel. And in 2020, Trump supported Morocco's 45-year claims to govern Western Sahara in exchange for its diplomatic recognition of Israel.
However, Charap doubts the advisability of such a concession to Russia in the case of Crimea. He referred to the precedent of the "Welles Declaration" from July 1940, in which Acting Secretary of State Sumner Welles stated that the United States would never recognize the occupation of the Baltic countries—Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia—by Soviet Russia in the summer of that year. "This did not prevent détente or even the end of the Cold War through negotiations," said Charap.
Daniel Fried, a former diplomat with extensive experience working with Ukraine and Russia, called the issue with Crimea the worst element of Trump's proposal. It's one thing to cease hostilities on the current front lines without demanding Russia withdraw troops from the vast territory of eastern Ukraine it now occupies. It's another thing to officially recognize Russia's claims to Crimea. "It is entirely reasonable to accept the reality that for an indefinite period, part of Ukraine will be under illegal Russian occupation," Fried believes. "It's quite another thing to officially recognize a change of borders by force."
On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out such a possibility, stating that it would violate his country's constitution: "There is nothing to discuss here. This is our land, the land of the Ukrainian people," he said.
Photo: The New York Times