The Ministry of Economic Development lowered the forecast for the average annual price of Brent oil in 2025 in the baseline scenario from $81.7 (September forecast) to $68 per barrel, reports «Interfax» citing the Ministry of Economic Development.
The price of Urals oil will be $56 per barrel in 2025. This is the lowest value since 2020, when due to the pandemic, oil demand collapsed and the average annual price of Urals was $41.7 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank in its February forecast laid expectations for Russian oil prices in 2025 at $65 per barrel.
The new forecast from the Ministry of Economic Development is lower not only than the budgeted price of $69.7 per barrel but also the so-called cut-off price of $60 per barrel, on which expenses are planned, notes The Moscow Times*, oil and gas revenues above the cut-off price are directed to the National Wealth Fund (NWF), and if the actual oil price falls below $60, the missing funds are taken from the NWF. As of April 1, it had 3.27 trillion rubles of liquid assets left.
As Bloomberg wrote, at the beginning of April, the price of Urals oil with loading in the Baltic port of Primorsk was $52.76 per barrel. In January-February, the Russian budget consisted of 30% of oil and gas revenues. In March, the Ministry of Finance already revised the forecast for 2025 and predicted that the average oil price would be only $60 per barrel. A month later, the forecasts were adjusted again.
* Recognized in Russia as a «foreign agent» and «undesirable» organization.