According to Argus Media, on Friday the price of Urals oil with loading in the Baltic port of Primorsk was $52.76 per barrel, reported Bloomberg. This is 25% below the budgeted price of $69.7 and close to the lows for the entire period of the war in Ukraine. The last time the main export grade Urals fell below $50 was in June 2023. The Kremlin acknowledged that the situation is «tense and turbulent» and promised to do everything possible to mitigate the consequences for the economy. Meanwhile, a barrel of Russian oil is trading at a significant discount to the global benchmark — Brent crude.
At the end of last week, the global market experienced a collapse due to Donald Trump's trade war and the OPEC+ decision to further increase production, resulting in the price of Brent crude falling by 12.5% and ending trading at $65.58. The market pressure was also increased by Saudi Arabia's decision to lower export prices for its oil.
On Monday, the price fell to $62.51 per barrel, then rose to about $63.5, which heightened investors' concerns about a global decline in economic activity and a drop in demand for energy resources.
As Bloomberg writes, in January-February, the Russian budget consisted of 30% oil and gas revenues. In March, the Ministry of Finance already revised the forecast for 2025 and now expects the average oil price to be only $60 instead of the $70 planned in the budget. The agency assured that at such prices, the budget deficit would increase but not exceed 1% of GDP. Current prices are beyond the March forecast.