The ceasefire in Ukraine will sharply increase security risks for the Baltic States because Russia will continue to rearm and move troops to the northeastern flank of NATO, writes Financial Times.
«Let's not harbor illusions that after Ukraine, Russia will be finished. Russia will use the ceasefire to build up its military potential. They already have a huge, battle-trained army that will become even larger», — the publication quotes Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Šakaliene.
According to Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, of the 600,000 Russian soldiers currently in Ukraine, 300,000 are likely to be redeployed after the conflict is frozen. «These people will not return to different regions of Russia to harvest corn or do something else, because the salary in the army is 5–10 times higher than what they could earn at home», — Pevkur believes.
The Baltic States are particularly concerned about the large-scale military exercises «Zapad-2025», scheduled for September near their borders with Russia and Belarus. They are seen as preparation for a full-scale conflict with NATO. After the completion of the exercises in 2021, Russian troops remained in Belarus, and by February 2022, they were involved in the offensive in the northern regions of Ukraine.