American intelligence in its secret reports questions Vladimir Putin's readiness to end the war against Ukraine, believing that he has not changed his main goal — to subjugate it in one way or another, writes The Washington Post. In one of the secret reports, dated March 6, it is stated that Putin still intends to maintain power over Kyiv.
On Thursday, Putin reacted cautiously to the ceasefire proposal. Without directly rejecting it, he hinted that Moscow might set conditions for any agreement. Some current and former American officials stated that even if Putin agrees to a temporary truce, he will use it to retrain his troops and is likely to violate the terms of the deal by staging a provocation for which he will blame Ukraine.
«I do not believe that a ceasefire or even a truce or agreement will be the end of the story, — said former American intelligence officer Eugene Rumer to the publication. — This is a new permanent confrontation between Russia and the rest of Europe». Other analysts expressed the opinion that negotiations could lead to a positive result if Washington and Europe play their cards right. «For Putin to stop fighting, he must think he can win in negotiations», — believes Eric Ciaramella, a former American intelligence officer. — But that does not mean he will win. The key to concluding a favorable and long-term ceasefire agreement will be the development of security measures for Ukraine that will allow it to restore its military power and deter a repeat attack».
On Wednesday, Trump refused to assess the chances of reaching a deal with Putin, stating only that he thinks «it makes sense for Russia».
Meanwhile, a European intelligence officer, citing intelligence gathered over the past month, stated that officials in Moscow call Trump weak, believing they can manipulate him. He also noted that in the event of a ceasefire, Moscow is likely to return to «hybrid» or non-military means of undermining Ukraine, as was the case in 2014. These means include economic and diplomatic coercion, infiltration into the Ukrainian elite, business circles, security services, and armed forces, as well as influence through the ROC in Ukraine. «The invasion in 2022 happened because hybrid tools did not yield results», — said the European official.
In recent years, Russia has intensified the use of hybrid methods in Europe: it attempted to kill the CEO of a German arms manufacturer, committed arson in the UK and other European countries, and interfered in elections in Moldova.
Photo: AP