Last year, Russia reclaimed about 3800 square kilometers of territory from Ukraine at the cost of massive losses, but still has not taken control of the entire territory of the four Ukrainian regions that the Kremlin "annexed" in 2022. Meanwhile, although Ukrainian troops suffer from a lack of personnel, there has not been a single large-scale Russian breakthrough that would lead to the complete collapse of Ukrainian lines. Instead, last summer, the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the Kursk region, part of which they still hold.
According to The New York Times, the Russian army suffers losses of 1000 to 1500 killed and wounded daily.
By the end of 2024, Russian losses in the war with Ukraine amounted to more than 160,000 people killed, according to journalists from "Meduza"*, who studied data on losses by name list of the deceased and by the registry of inheritance cases. Journalists identified the names of 95,328 dead.
Last year was the bloodiest of the entire war. In 2022, about 20,000 Russians died on the front, in 2023 — about 50 (from 47 to 53), in 2024 the number of losses approached 100,000.
Russia's military economy shows a 10% inflation growth, sky-high interest rates, and no prospects for improvement.
Meanwhile, during the war, two more countries entered NATO in Russia's backyard — Finland and Sweden, which contradicts not only the "goals of the special military operation" but also all of Putin's statements.
However, all these losses gave Russia time during which the world changed. As The New York Times writes, by the third anniversary of the start of the war, statements from the White House about the US confronting war criminals, supporting democracy, and ensuring that freedom prevails have disappeared. The united front of the US and Europe in support of Ukraine has collapsed.
Vladimir Putin has entrenched himself on the battlefield, despite losses and growing war costs, to outlast the West's resolve in a much longer and more burdensome conflict than Moscow expected. Now is the time to change the balance of power in favor of the Kremlin not only in Ukraine.
"I think he sees a real opportunity to both win the war in Ukraine and remove the US not only from Ukraine but also from Europe," said Max Bergmann, a Russia analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who worked at the State Department during the Obama administration.
According to Bergmann, Vladimir Putin's "grand goal" is the destruction of NATO — a military alliance of 32 countries led by the United States, which was created after World War II to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union.
Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Putin made a demand to the United States and its European allies that went far beyond Ukraine, proposing to revive spheres of influence in Europe from the Cold War era, divided between Moscow and Washington. He demanded that NATO agree not to expand further east at the expense of former Soviet Union countries, including Ukraine. He also insisted that the Western military bloc not deploy any military forces and weapons in Central and Eastern European countries. Many of these countries, such as Estonia, Poland, and Romania, have been NATO members for decades, and it would be difficult for them to defend against a Russian invasion without pre-deployed troops and equipment.
Three years ago, the West immediately rejected Putin's proposals as unthinkable. However, now the previous unity is gone, and the Kremlin is likely to return to them in upcoming negotiations with Trump, who has long been skeptical of NATO and the presence of American troops in Europe.
European countries that opposed Putin face their own domestic challenges, being engulfed by the rise of Kremlin-friendly far-right parties, which now enjoy support from both Russian and American officials.
"In Putin's view, it is the most powerful countries that should set the rules of the road," says Angela Stent, a distinguished professor of government at Georgetown University. "Small countries, whether they like it or not, should listen to them." The Trump administration has come to the same tactic, regarding all its allies.
* Recognized in Russia as a "foreign agent".
Photo: EPA