Vladimir Putin believes that the main goals of the war in Ukraine have already been achieved, writes Reuters citing a source familiar with the Kremlin's position. According to him, one of these goals was to gain control over the "land bridge" to Crimea. Also, last year Russia achieved the most significant territorial successes since the early days of the war, and now it controls almost a fifth of Ukraine.
At the same time, the Kremlin is increasingly concerned about the situation in the Russian economy. The war is putting pressure on the economy, the agency's interlocutor clarified, mentioning "really big problems" such as the impact of high interest rates on non-war-related industries.
The Russian economy, driven by the export of oil, gas, and minerals, has been actively growing over the past two years, despite numerous rounds of Western sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, in recent months, domestic activity has become strained due to labor shortages and high interest rates introduced to combat inflation, which accelerated amid record military spending. According to two agency sources, this has contributed to the formation of an opinion among the Russian elite that resolving the war through negotiations is the most optimal way out of the situation.
As the agency notes, until recently, the $2.2 trillion Russian economy showed surprising resilience during the war. After contracting in 2022, the Russian GDP grew faster than in the European Union and the US in 2023 and 2024. However, this year the Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast growth of less than 1.5%, as the margin of safety is depleting. Inflation has reached double digits, despite the Central Bank raising the base interest rate to 21% in October.
This week, Donald Trump stated that if Putin does not agree to negotiations, sanctions against Russia may be intensified, adding that this will lead to "big problems" in the economy. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte supported Trump's threats to intensify sanctions against Russia if Moscow does not stop the war against Ukraine. In addition, he expressed hope that the EU will also strengthen sanctions against Russia to "strangle" its economy and reduce the military treasury. At the same time, the Kremlin stated that Russia has not yet received any specific proposals for negotiations.
At the end of December, a former high-ranking Russian official told the Financial Times that economic problems could push Putin to end the war in Ukraine out of fear that Russia might repeat the fate of the USSR, which collapsed in part due to economic problems. "He can hold out for two or three years. But he knows that the economy cannot grow with such interest rates. It's a disaster," added the FT interlocutor.
Earlier, the Reuters agency reported that Putin is ready to discuss ceasefire options with Trump, but Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine must be recognized and Ukraine's NATO membership must be abandoned.
Photo: Reuters