Experts from the environmental organization "Bellona"* analyzed Eurostat data for the first 10 months of 2024, recording a decrease in EU countries' purchases of nuclear materials from Russia. Purchases of nuclear fuel for Soviet-designed VVER reactors, after doubling in 2023, have almost returned to the 2022 purchase level — in the range of 300-360 tons. This may indicate that European nuclear power plant operators have made the necessary reserves for the period of supplier change, and in the coming years, fuel purchases from Russia will only decrease.
According to expert estimates, by 2030, nuclear fuel supplies to EU countries from Russia may decrease from the 2022 level by at least 60% — to a level below 100 tons per year.
Purchases of enriched uranium by EU countries have also significantly decreased. In the first 10 months of 2024, low-enriched uranium from Russia was purchased by only French companies — about 30 tons were imported directly to France, and up to 70 tons were bought by the plant of the French company Advanced Nuclear Fuels (ANF), located in Lingen, Germany. Total purchases for the 10 months of the past year amounted to less than 100 tons of low-enriched uranium, which is more than twice lower than in 2023, when the purchase volume was about 250 tons, and much lower than purchases in 2022 and 2021, which were about 430-480 tons.
At the same time, Russia's share in the segment of low-enriched uranium supplies to EU countries decreased to 15% in 2024, although before 2022, in some years, it even exceeded 50%.
"Competitors of 'Rosatom' such as Urenco and Orano are finally taking over the European enrichment market, which remains one of the largest in the world, and are investing in new capacity expansions," said Dmitry Gorchakov, an expert on Bellona's nuclear project.
Eurostat has not yet published supply data for November and December, which could potentially increase the total imports from Russia by the end of the year. However, analysts note that it is unlikely that these two months will radically change the overall conclusion that Europe is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian enriched uranium.
After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU countries have become more active in switching to alternative suppliers in the nuclear fuel sector. All buyers of Russian nuclear fuel in the EU by 2024 have already signed contracts for alternative supplies, and some of them, such as Bulgaria and Finland, have already started loading alternative fuel, so new peaks in nuclear fuel purchases from Russia are not expected.
Considering the declared and already implemented plans for capacity expansion by Urenco and Orano in the USA and EU, Western countries will be able to reduce their dependence on Russian uranium enrichment services by at least threefold in the next 5 years, to a level of less than 10% of the total purchase volume.
* Recognized as an "undesirable" organization in Russia.